A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
