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Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.