🔗 Share this article Everyday Murders in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics The typical count of everyday killings each month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent administrative statistics. However, public safety experts have advised that homicide numbers could fail to indicate better national safety. Notable Decline in Daily Figures There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September. This information was delivered by the director of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday. “The figures in homicides that we have seen in these months is very significant,” the President said, adding that the previous month the least number of murders were recorded for any November in the past 10 years. Historical Background and Government Strategy Violent cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data agency. That gave Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an seemingly sharper decline in homicides this year. At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it each day.” The key components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass: Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard. Improving information gathering and investigation work. Enhanced cooperation between various agencies. Analyst Caution and Data Limitations However, security researchers warned that relying on murder data to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is especially true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions. “It would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.” According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical period last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%. “Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for estimating the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the will to correctly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through disappearances.” Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of daily killings was similarly problematic because it could mask days when there were particularly elevated levels of killings. “Using the daily mean renders surges of violence invisible,” he said. Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated. “Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas. Persistent Violence and Societal Anger However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe violence, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last year. Weeks later, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their anger at graft and cartel violence. “The federal government shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.
The typical count of everyday killings each month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent administrative statistics. However, public safety experts have advised that homicide numbers could fail to indicate better national safety. Notable Decline in Daily Figures There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September. This information was delivered by the director of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday. “The figures in homicides that we have seen in these months is very significant,” the President said, adding that the previous month the least number of murders were recorded for any November in the past 10 years. Historical Background and Government Strategy Violent cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data agency. That gave Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an seemingly sharper decline in homicides this year. At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it each day.” The key components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass: Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard. Improving information gathering and investigation work. Enhanced cooperation between various agencies. Analyst Caution and Data Limitations However, security researchers warned that relying on murder data to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is especially true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions. “It would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.” According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical period last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%. “Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for estimating the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the will to correctly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through disappearances.” Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of daily killings was similarly problematic because it could mask days when there were particularly elevated levels of killings. “Using the daily mean renders surges of violence invisible,” he said. Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated. “Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas. Persistent Violence and Societal Anger However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe violence, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last year. Weeks later, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their anger at graft and cartel violence. “The federal government shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.