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Just eight weeks prior when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the side's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was much more joyous. When the England international swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the wins have piled up.

According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – but right now the margins are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

His opener stemmed from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.

A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Could it be a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho might become the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital England player.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.